INVESTMENT DETERMINANTS OF FINANCIAL SUPPORT FOR THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR OF UKRAINE: DIVERGENCE BETWEEN ADAPTATION AND VULNERABILITY
Abstract
The relevance of the study is determined by the fact that, under the conditions of a prolonged war, intensifying climate threats, and changing regulatory requirements for the financial sector, the agricultural sector of Ukraine operates under the influence of interrelated risks that complicate capital attraction and weaken its recovery capacity. The aim of the article is to substantiate the investment determinants of financial support for the agricultural sector of Ukraine by identifying the gap between current signs of financial adaptation and accumulated structural vulnerability of the sector. The methodological framework is based on a systems approach, comparative analysis, GAP analysis, a risk-based approach, and statistical generalization, which made it possible to combine the assessment of financial results, investment activity, regional differentiation of lending, and the influence of war-related, climate, and ESG factors on access to financial resources. The study finds that the recovery of selected financial indicators does not eliminate the sector’s systemic vulnerability, since positive dynamics in profitability and investment coexist with a shortage of resources for reconstruction, spatial asymmetry in access to credit, and a mismatch between long-term recovery needs and the predominantly short- and medium-term nature of available financial instruments. It is substantiated that the investment environment of the agricultural sector is shaped by six key determinants related to the security premium, maturity constraints, ESG conditionality, regional inequality, asymmetry of access for small and medium-sized producers, and fiscal limitations. The practical value of the results lies in the possibility of using the proposed approach to identify critical financial gaps, improve state and banking support mechanisms, and develop instruments of guarantees, long-term lending, insurance protection, and blended finance for post-war recovery, adaptive capacity, and long-term resilience of Ukraine’s agricultural sector, including the strengthening of investment decision-making under conditions of heightened uncertainty.
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